China revised Corn data: tripled stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2018]

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) in October revised its supply estimates for Corn in China from 2007-08 through 2017-18. For the 2018-19 season, beginning stocks are forecast at 223 Mio Tons (+180% from October estimates), and ending stocks are expected at 207 Mio Tons (+180%). China’s stocks are forecast to account for 68% of global Corn stocks (followed by the U.S. with a share of 14%).

Global Corn stocks reflect this revision and are estimated at 308 Mio Tons, +93% compared to last month’s estimates. US stocks, on the other hand, are expected to decrease (-4.2%).

Excluding China, world production is almost unchanged, in fact higher production in Argentina, Kenya, Russia and Moldova offset the expected decreases in the EU (in particular in Hungary, Poland and Germany) and in the USA (-1%, on a reduced yield forecast).

The 2018-19 global Soybean production is reduced -2% from October estimates. Lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by increases for China, India and Ukraine.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast -1.9% on lower yield, which is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, -1 bushel.

U.S. Soybean exports are affected by lower imports projected for China, due to the customs tariffs imposed by China, and are expected at -7.8%. In fact, China is forecast to import less Soybean (-4.4%). South America is expected to capture more of China’s Soybean market while the U.S. is likely to capture more share in other markets.

U.S. Corn exports are reduced -1% based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine.

Source: USDA