News Oceania n°13/2014

Period: June 9-20, 2014

AUSTRALIA

• Milk production: indications of a strong milk production in May. Victoria and Tasmania, the major dairy exporting states, have benefited from good autumn pasture growth
• Weather forecast: an El Niño will likely occur in August, bringing dryer than normal conditions over the southern and eastern inland areas
• Milk producers in those regions are being encouraged to have contingency plans to deal with prolonged dry periods

NEW ZEALAND

• Milk production: Ministry for Primary Industries estimated an increase of 2.3% in the 2014/15 milk season, which began on June 1
• Weather situation: normal autumn weather conditions during May replenished soil moistures over most of the country, with only the most northern areas of the North Island having dryer than normal conditions

MILK PRODUCTION

• New Zealand *: +8,92% (Jun 13 – Apr 14 vs. Jun 12 – Apr 13)
• Australia *: -0,84% (Jul 13 – Apr 14 vs. Jul 12 – Apr 13)

BUTTER (82%): prices moved higher on the low end of the range; the competitive prices have increased buyer interest for spot loads of butter; some countries in the Middle East are concerned about butter availability from Europe and the U.S. in Q3, and are beginning talks with Oceania manufacturers about additional supplies for the period; Russia is also entering negotiations for Q3 supplies; current supplies are more than adequate for the low milk production period.

CHEDDAR CHEESE: prices unchanged; light market activity; production is covering domestic needs and some export orders; supplies are adequate for the low milk production period; the market is focused on the ongoing Japan negotiations.

SMP: prices moved higher; Southeast Asian demand has declined as buyers are waiting to see if prices will move lower; a majority of supplies are in place for the upcoming Ramadan holiday in the Middle East; there is some spot load availability as some manufacturers are adjusting their inventories.

WMP: prices for the Q3 increased, while spot sales showed some marginal declines; supplies adequate to cover the carryover/low milk production period; many in the market are awaiting renewed buying interest from China, but it is currently in the strongest portion of its milk production season.

Comments from traders indicate the butter and SMP markets may have established a price floor in recent weeks.

Note: · Assessments about market trend are expressed in US$;
· * Dairy season: July, 1st – June, 30th (Australia), June, 1st – May, 31st (New Zealand).

Source: USDA summarized by the CLAL Team

CLAL.it – Historical comparative overview between Butter prices in USA and Germany