News Oceania n°23/2014

Period: October 27 – November 7, 2014

AUSTRALIA

• Milk production: has peaked in most states.
• Weather forecasts: the dry conditions will reduce grazing.
• Milk producers: will be forced to start supplemental feeding if rains do not come soon.

NEW ZEALAND

• Milk production: is very strong with volumes above year ago levels.
• Weather situation: is favorable for milk production.

MILK PRODUCTION

• New Zealand *: +5,13% (Jun-Aug 14 vs. Jun-Aug 13)
• Australia *: +2,82%  (Jul-Sep 14 vs. Jul-Sep 13)

BUTTER (82%): prices declined on both ends of the range; production is strong and supplies are building; good export interest from Noth Africa and the Middle East.

CHEDDAR CHEESE: prices moved lower on the upper end of the range; production is active due to heavy seasonal milk volumes and also because cheddar is providing a better return compared to other commodities; Australian mozzarella production has increased, due to good Asian demand.

SMP: prices moved lower on both ends of the range; production is at capacity levels at most plants and supplies are building; buyers, knowing that global supplies are increasing, are willing to wait for possible lower prices in the future; in September NZ saw its share of exports to China decline with increased shares going to the U.S. and EU.

WMP: prices decreased; production is strong and supplies are building; expectations for a strong return to market by China are diminishing as supplies in that country appear to be ample.

Domestic dairy stocks are rebuilding with additional supplies available for the export market. The dairy markets have a bearish undertone with some analysts not anticipating a rebound in the current trends until mid-2015.

Note: · Assessments about market trend are expressed in US$; · * Dairy season: July, 1st – June, 30th (Australia), June, 1st – May, 31st (New Zealand).

Source: USDA summarized by the CLAL Team

CLAL.it – China Monthly Import of SMP