News Oceania n°11/2014

Period: May 12 – 23, 2014

AUSTRALIA

• Milk production: it has benefited from a period of unseasonably warm temperatures
• Weather forecast: the forecast for the probability of an “El Niño” increases the possibility of drought conditions
• Milk producers as a consequence of the weather forecast, some producers restricted planned herd expansions

NEW ZEALAND

• Milk production: continues to decline seasonally
• Milk producers: where possible, some producers are extending the milking season, incentivized by the relatively high milk price and good margins

MILK PRODUCTION

• New Zealand *: +7,63% (Jun 13 – Mar 14 vs. Jun 12 – Mar 13)
• Australia *: -0,84% (Jul 13 – Apr 14 vs. Jul 12 – Apr 13)

BUTTER (82%): prices moved lower; some buyers continue to wait, anticipating that increased global production will lower prices; some spot loads have become available and are receiving interest from the Middle East; a few spot sales of AMF have been exported to Southeast Asia.

CHEDDAR CHEESE: steady prices; supplies at the end of the milking season are tight as a result of this year’s focus on milk powder production; the limited cheese supplies have supported prices; the next round of negotiations has begun with Japan for contracts covering the second half of 2014.

SMP: declines in SMP prices were fairly significant as manufacturers are adjusting the inventories prior to the end of the fiscal year; demand is fair to good; the demand for cream cheese in Australia is channeling more of the available milk flow to SMP, rather than WMP.

WMP: prices continued to decline; trading is focused on New Zealand product as those manufacturers are adjusting inventories prior to the close of the financial year and making product available at competitive prices.

In Australia, the largest export category is skim milk powders (SMP). The total value of export is 20.2% higher over the prior year period. The highest value items are SMP and WMP.

Note: · Assessments about market trend are expressed in US$;
· * Dairy season: July, 1st – June, 30th (Australia), June, 1st – May, 31st (New Zealand).

Source: USDA summarized by the CLAL Team

CLAL.it – Comparison among Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) Prices in Germany, USA and Oceania