China: Soy consumption at record levels in 2020/21 season

Global Production

Soybean Global production for the season 2019/20 is projected at 336.11 Mio Tons (-6.7% on 2018/19), slightly decreasing compared to the previous estimates.

Brazil Soybean production is estimated at 124 Mio Tons for the season 2019/20 (+4.2% on 2018/19).

The increase in production is driven by the increase in the harvested area, +3% compared the last season, and a higher yield per hectare (+3%). The only exception is the Rio Grande do Sul State, where a decrease in production is expected due to drought.

Soybean production for the United States and Argentina is expected to decrease compared both to the previous season, respectively to 96.78 Mio Tons (-19.7%), and 51 Mio Tons (-7.8%), and to April estimates. In Argentina, unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields by -10%. - Soybean Top Producers – Soybean Top Producers

Global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast to surge to 362.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the 2019/20 estimate. For United States and Brazil, the main producing Countries, it is expected an increase in harvested area and yields. Production is estimated at 131 Mio Tons for Brazil, and at 121 Mio Tons for the US. - Map of Soybean Yields – Map of Soybean Yields

Consumption, Export and Prices

Soybean consumption for the 2019/20 season is stable at 348 Mio Tons, while for the 2020/21 it is expected at a record level.

The world export of Soybean 2019/20 is expected to increase (+3.8% on 2018-19), reaching the level of 153.98 Mio Tons.

Brazil’s exports are estimated at 84 Mio Tons, (+12.6% on 2018-19), reflecting the increased trade during March and April, supported by a greater competitiveness in the markets due to the weaker currency.

On the contrary, US exports, which are suffering from the competition with Brazil, are estimated at 45.59 Mio Tons, (-4.2% on 2018/19).

Brazil’s average export prices for March 2020 are down to $345 per ton, while the US prices are slightly higher at $366 per ton. - Average Soybean Export Prices – Average Soybean Export Prices

In 2020/21, China is expected to account for over half of global consumption growth, mainly due to the expansion of the Chinese swine herd, which is recovering from African swine fever.

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