Authors: Mirco De Vincenzi, Elisa Donegatti, Ester Venturelli
For US dairy exports, February 2024 marked the first month with a positive change compared to the same month in 2023, after a year of negative variations. The recovery has been led by Cheeses that, overall, recorded an increase of +32,1% (+10.000 tons) associated with an average unit price of 4,56$/Kg, 15% lower compared to the price of a year before.
The lower prices also supported the exports of almost all the other major exported dairy products. Among those, the SMP (Skimmed Milk Powder) export recorded a decrease in flow towards Mexico that, however, has been largely compensated by a stronger demand from Asian countries. SMP production has been at minimum levels for several months which resulted in minimum stocks as well. This caused the downwarding trend of prices to stop and could result in an upward push if SMP demand increases.
Concerning the agricultural sector, over the first two months of 2024 the Cereal export witnessed an overall increase of +39,4% compared to the same period of 2023, supported by the low prices that encouraged demand. Only Soft Wheat and Durum Wheat exported quantities were reduced, by -1,12% and -6,40%, respectively. The total increase of Oilseeds export is +3,61%. Particularly, there has been an increase for Soybean Meal (+44,93%), due to lower quantities entering the market from Argentina.
The export of Hay and Alfalfa records a +21% increase in the first two months of 2024 compared to 2023, with the main destinations being Japan, China, and South Korea. However, these quantities are lower than those recorded in 2022, which had seen a record-breaking export.