di: Elisa Donegatti, Mirco De Vincenzi, Ester Venturelli
During the first trimester of 2024, China increased imports of Cereals by 25,9% compared to the same period of 2023, recording the record over the last four years.
Barley demand, that changed from 1,7 millions to 4,4 millions of tons, is the main driver of that growth (+162%). The imported Barley is meant for both beer production and feed and among the main suppliers Australia stands out, being the first country of origin with 2,3 millions of tons. Barley import from Australia started in the second semester of last year, after the removal in August of the anti-dumping duties charged by Beijing. Import data indicate an upward trend for Sorghum, supplied mainly by the US, and, to a lesser degree, for Corn, mainly from Brazil.
For what concerns Oilseeds, despite diminishing prices, the total import records reductions for almost all items. Soybean purchases grew from 23 millions to 18,5 million of tons, with more quantities from Brazil that compensated for reductions from other countries of origin.
In the Dairy sector, demand is still weakening. It continues the import decline with a -14% drop (January-March 2024 compared to January-March 2023). Imports from the EU have decreased the most (-30.7%), recording lower quantities of Drinking Milk and SMP (-80%). There’s also a significant decrease in imports from the USA (-18.3%), mainly due to weak demand for Whey (-23.7%), following a downsizing of the swine herd.
Among the few items showing a positive change there are WMP (+6.4%) and Grated Cheeses (+20.5%). However, the overall slowdown underscores a widespread erosion of demand, likely associated with both increased domestic production as well as weakening of the country’s economy.
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