Corn: the demand for Ethanol falls down

Global Corn Production

Corn production for the season 2019-20 is estimated at 1113.02 Mio Tons, adjusted higher compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous season.

Global Corn production is forecasted up with larger crops in the European Union and Belarus more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

The US Corn production forecast is unchanged compared to the last estimates (-4.5% compared 2018/2019 season). Some operators believe that Coronavirus should not  delay farmers from planting. The USDA has estimated Corn acreage in the US for 2020-21 (September-August) at 96.99 million acres, 4% higher on year, and the highest after 2012-13. The U.S. season-average farm price decreased to $3.60 per bushel, down $0,20 compared to last season.

Corn production forecast is expected unchanged for China, Brazil and Argentina compared to the previous outlook.

Following the above-average rains in March, CONAB estimates good harvests in Mato Grosso area in Brazil, which represents approximately 46 percent of Brazil’s second-season crop. In the areas located south of Mato Grosso, March rains were below-average. - Map Corn Yields – Map Corn Yields

Global Corn Export: slight increase compared to the last outlook

Corn export for the season 2019-20 is projected slightly higher compared to last estimates, but it is still lower compared to the 2018-19 season.

April’s export forecast shows an increase for UE and Argentina, while a decrease for Russia.

Corn export outlook for US and Brazil is unchanged compared to the last forecast, confirming a negative trend (US -16.5% e Brazil -9.4% vs season 2018-19). - Corn Export – Corn Export

ETHANOL: Fall in demand

Following the collapse in the demand for gasoline, a domino effect has been seen on the demand for ethanol, which led to a reduction in production and the closure of several plants. According to Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the RFA (Renewable Fuels Association), the ethanol industry could lose $ 10 Billion due to COVID-19 related issues. Some operators expect a 3 billion gallon decrease in ethanol production for 2020, with a drop of about 20% compared to 2019. - Production of Ethanol in U.S. – Production of Ethanol in U.S.

Futures are reflecting the negative trend of the market. CME Futures of July 20, which were $3.79 on February 25, have reached the level of $3.22 on April 20.


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The team is composed of young people who with the help of Computer Science study the dairy market and develop tools to provide the Operators of the dairy sector with a comprehensive real-time view of the national and international market trends.

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Posted in Brazil, Corn, United States