The monthly report of May 2017 released by the United States Department of Agriculture (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report – WASDE) presents the estimates for the new season 2017-18. Gobal production is lowered both for Corn (1033.66 Mio t, -3% from 2016-17) and Soybean (344.21 Mio t, -1%).
Corn production declines mostly in China (215 Mio t, -2.1%) and in the United States (357.3 Mio t, -7.1%), which account for the 56% of the global Corn production. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for the EU and Canada. Soybean production decreases from last year’s records in the U.S. (115.8 Mio t, -1.2% from the previous season), Brazil (107 Mio t, -4.1%) and Paraguay (9.4 Mio t, -8.7%) as yield return to trend levels.
The U.S. Corn outlook for 2017-18 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. Feed, seed and industrial use is projected to rise 1.1% mainly due to increased use of Corn to produce ethanol, which is up 1.3 Mio t, reflecting the expectations of gasoline consumption growth. Soybean supplies, crush, exports and ending stocks in the U.S. are expected higher compared to the 2016-17 season. The U.S. Soybean export share is projected at 39%, near the 5-year average.
For China, total Corn supply is down 14 Mio t in 2017-18, based on projected declines in beginning stocks and production (respectively -8.54% and -2.1%). On the demand side, feed and residual use is expected to increase based on continued relatively low internal market prices, efforts by the government to promote use of domestic supplies and reduced imports of Corn substitutes.
Global Corn ending stocks are down (195.27 Mio t, -12.8%) from last year’s record high and if realized would be the lowest since 2013-14. The drop largely reflects forecast declines for China and the United States. Lower global production has led to a 1.3 Mio t decrease in global Soybean stocks, particularly in Brazil and Argentina where stocks are expected to decline by 2.6 Mio t combined.
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