Period: October 31 – November 11, 2016
- Milk production: is tailing off from the likely peak. Currently, seasonal projections are projected to be 6-8% lower versus the prior year.
- Weather situation: wet conditions remain pervasive, hampering current milk output. The positive side is there is soil moisture and irrigation water for later cropping and pasture needs.
- Milk production: continues to trend lower from the seasonal high point in October with volumes remaining lower than a year ago in November.
- Weather situation: heavy rains continue to fall across the North Islands and are a hindrance to pasture growth, resulting in lower milk production.
- Australia *: -9.94% (Jul – Sep 16 vs. Jul – Sep 15)
- New Zealand *: -0.19% (Jun – Sep 16 vs. Jun – Sep 15)
BUTTER (82%): prices are mostly higher. There is good demand for butterfat and production of butter is steady to lower. Available supplies remain tight.
CHEDDAR CHEESE: prices are steady. Demand is fair to good. Competition with exporting countries is developing.
SMP: prices are slightly higher. The demand picture is mostly fair at best and subdued, production is active. The market tone is steady to slightly firm, gaining some momentum from rising WMP pricing. The SMP market is balanced, but cautious.
WMP: pricing is sharply higher, led by limited offerings and increased market prices on the GDT. Light demand. Buyers are cautious of the sharp increases. Production is steady to lower in the region, reflecting the seasonal declines in milk output. Manufacturers are trying to keep milk in WMP plants when practical.
Recent increase in WMP pricing is a psychological boost to farmers in New Zealand. Milk prices are expected to be raised in upcoming meetings. However, there is always caution in raising pay prices, especially should the product market prices retreat.
A devastating earthquake hit New Zeland just after midnight on Monday, November 14 (11:02 GMT on Sunday). Thankfully Tsunami warning was scaled back to a “marine and beach threat” just after 08:00 local time (19:00 GMT). The possible impact on the dairy sector has not yet been assessed.
Note: · Assessments about market trend are expressed in US$; · * Dairy season: July, 1st – June, 30th (Australia), June, 1st – May, 31st (New Zealand).
Source: USDA summarized by the CLAL Team