Record Soybean import for China – New season outlook [Corn and Soybean - n°5/2018]

The estimates for the new season 2018-19, starting in September for Corn and in October for Soybean, forecast increasing production and use and decreasing ending stocks from 2017-18.

Corn production is forecast at 1056.07 Mio Tons (+1.9% from a year ago) and Soybean production is expected to reach record high (354.54 Mio Tons, +5.3%).

U.S. Corn and Soybean crops are projected down from last year with a lower forecast area and yield. This decrease will be more than offset by significant increases in other countries: China and Brazil, the second and the third largest Corn producers, are expected to increase the Corn production respectively +4.2% and +10.3%. Soybean production for Argentina, the third largest Corn producer and exporter, is projected +43.6% mostly due to recovery from drought.

Global Corn exports are projected higher (+4.6%) from the current season, with the largest increases for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. The U.S. will be affected by the competition from Ukraine and Russia and are expected to decrease the Corn exports (-5.6%). Notable forecast increases in Corn imports include Mexico, Vietnam and Egypt.

Global Soybean exports are growing every year. The 2018-19 export forecast is +7% compared to 2017-18. The U.S. are expected to recover the lower export of the current year and to increase +10.9%. China, with a share of 65% of global Soybean import, is projected to increase again the imports, reaching a record 103 Mio Tons, more than doubling the volume compared to 10 years ago.

Source: USDA