Starting from the report of November 2018, the data show a significative variation, following the large revision for Corn data in China, made by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.
The global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is expected to decrease slightly (1068.3 Mio Tons, -0.1%) compared to the estimates made in September, but remains higher than the previous season (+2.8%). The world Soybean production, instead, is confirmed at the record level of 369.5 Mio Tons, +9.5% compared to the 2017-18 season.
In the U.S. is forecast a reduction in yields for Corn and in harvested area for Soybean, resulting in a lower production of the two crops compared to previous forecasts (Corn: -0.3%, Soybean: -0.1%). Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks.
An increase in exports for the 2018-19 season is projected for the 4 main exporters of Corn (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which will overall increase their exports by 14.7% compared to 2017-18 season. U.S exports are supported by a competitive price and reduced exports for Russia.
For the 2 main exporters of Soybean (Brazil and United States), lower exports are expected for 2018-19 season, y-o-y, however Argentina should offset the decrease by recovering from the previous season’s drought.