Argentina: higher Corn supplies boost the export [Corn and Soybean - n°1/2019]

Global Corn production for 2018-19 is estimated at 1099.61 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the December outlook. The expected decrease in the United States (-1.4%) is offset by higher yields in China (+0.5%), EU-28 (+0.5%) and Argentina (+8.2%), with abundant rainfall over the past two months boosting yield prospects.

Global Soybean production is expected at 360.99 Mio Tons, -2.2% compared to previous forecast, reflecting crop reductions in the three main Soybean producers: U.S. (-1.2%), Brazil (-4.1%) and Argentina (-0.9%), due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.

US crop yields are projected lower, and Corn and Soybean production is expected to decline more than consumption, so final stocks are forecast at -2.6% for Corn and -4.7% for Soy. There is a reduction in the Corn used for ethanol.

On the Corn export side, record levels for Argentina (29 Mio Tons, +38%) and for Ukraine (28.5 Mio Tons, +58%) are expected for the 2018-19 season. Global exports are expected to increase by +14.4% compared to the previous season. Soybean exports are forecast slightly higher (+0.9%), with greater exports from Brazil and Argentina, which offset the decline for the United States (-11.9% compared to the 2017-18 season).

Forecasts of global Soybean ending stocks have been revised downwards, reflecting the historical balance sheets revisions for Argentina and Brazil, however the level remains high (106.72 Mio Tons).

Source: USDA