Global Soybean production for 2019-20 season, beginning on October 1, is forecast at 341.39 Mio Tons, -5.4% compared to the 2018-19 season.
Soybean total use record a continuous increase and, given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 99.19 Mio Tons (-11.8%).
In the 2018-19 season the United States were the first World Soybean Producer with a production of 123.7 Mio Tons, but for the 2019-20 season a production of 98.9 Mio Tons is expected (-20.1%), on a lower yield forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre.
Brazil will surpass the United States as the largest producer of Soybeans in 2019-20, taking over the top ranking, with a share of 36% and a production of 123 Mio Tons (+ 5.1%), which also reflects the yield increase.
For 2018-19 Soybean exports for Brazil are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments during the past few months. However, higher-than-expected exports by Argentina and the United States, particularly to China, are offsetting.
The weekly data show that, after a significant decrease in the first half of the season, US exports have started to recover since April, and in August they exceeded the levels of 2018. In the period January-July 2019 the United States, after the slowdown in 2018, increased Soybean export to China by + 33%.
For 2019-20, Soybean exports are expected higher for the three main exporters (Brazil, USA, Argentina).
China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.
In the first half of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +23.3%, compared to January-June 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.